Model monthly investment compounding, annual market returns (CAGR), dividend reinvestment, and your timeline to live off the 4% Safe Withdrawal Rule.
Achieving Financial Independence Retire Early (FIRE) is an objective mathematical exercise based on savings rate, real compound interest, and withdrawal longevity. Grounded in historical backtesting from the landmark Trinity Study, this framework models the transition from labor-dependent income to self-sustaining portfolio yield.
The core compounding formula combining principal appreciation with monthly recurring contributions:
Exponential growth accelerates after year 10, when annual compound interest returns eclipse your cumulative annual contributions.
Published in the Trinity Study (1998), a 4.0% initial withdrawal adjusted annually for inflation has a > 95% historical survival probability across 30-year retirement windows:
To generate $60,000 in perpetual passive income, your target FIRE portfolio is $1,500,000 invested in broad-market index funds.
The S&P 500 has averaged ~10.2% nominal annualized returns over the past 50 years. Modeling true future purchasing power requires adjusting for the Fisher equation:
Using a conservative 7.0% real return ensures that your future portfolio target is stated in today's purchasing power dollars.